Volume 12 Issue 3
May  2021
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Chen Rongxin, Lai Xingqiang, Zhang Lei, et al. Analysis of risk factors and establishment of prediction model for post transplantation diabetes mellitus in renal transplant recipients[J]. ORGAN TRANSPLANTATION, 2021, 12(3): 329-335. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-7445.2021.03.012
Citation: Chen Rongxin, Lai Xingqiang, Zhang Lei, et al. Analysis of risk factors and establishment of prediction model for post transplantation diabetes mellitus in renal transplant recipients[J]. ORGAN TRANSPLANTATION, 2021, 12(3): 329-335. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-7445.2021.03.012
shu

Analysis of risk factors and establishment of prediction model for post transplantation diabetes mellitus in renal transplant recipients

doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-7445.2021.03.012

  • Department of Organ Transplantation, the Second Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou 511447, China

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  • Corresponding author: Chen Zheng, Email: docchenzheng@163.com
  • Received Date: 2021-01-25
    Available Online: 2021-05-19
  • Publish Date: 2021-05-15
    Abstract
  •   Objective  To analyze the risk factors for the occurrence of post transplantation diabetes mellitus (PTDM) in renal transplant recipients, establish a prediction model for PTDM and evaluate its prediction value.  Methods  Clinical data of 915 renal transplant recipients were retrospectively analyzed. According to the occurrence of PTDM, all recipients were divided into the PTDM group (n=78) and non-PTDM group (n=837). The main indexes of recipients were collected. The risk factors for the occurrence of PTDM in renal transplant recipients were analyzed by univariate and multivariate analysis. The prediction model for PTDM was established and its prediction value was evaluated.  Results  Family history of diabetes mellitus, body mass index (BMI), preoperative 2 h postprandial blood glucose and preoperative glycosylated hemoglobin were the independent risk factors for the occurrence of PTDM in renal transplant recipients. The prediction model for PTDM was logit (P)=2.199×family history of diabetes (yes=1, no=0)+0.109×BMI+0.151×2 h postprandial blood glucose (mmol/L)+0.508×glycosylated hemoglobin (%)-9.123. The results of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve showed that the area under the curve (AUC) of these 4 predictors combined for predicting PTDM in renal transplant recipients was 0.830 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.786-0.873], the cut-off value was 0.0608, the sensitivity was 0.821, the specificity was 0.700, and the Youden index was 0.521 (P < 0.05).  Conclusions  Family history of diabetes mellitus, BMI, preoperative 2 h postprandial blood glucose and preoperative glycosylated hemoglobin are the independent risk factors for the occurrence of PTDM in renal transplant recipients. The prediction model for PTDM combined with4 predictors yield relatively high prediction value for PTDM.

     

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